Introducing Unsong
I. In retrospect, there had been omens and portents. (“We are now approaching lunar sunrise,” said William Anders, “and for all the people back on Earth, the crew of Apollo 8 has a message that we...
View ArticleClik here to view.
2015 Predictions: Calibration Results
Many people are making predictions for the new year around now. I see fewer people going back and grading the accuracy of their predictions about last year, even though that obviously has a lot of...
View ArticleClik here to view.
OT39: Appian Thread
This is the bi?-weekly open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. Also: 1. Comment of the week is this discussion on the calendar and the solstices, although everyone...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Guns And States
[Epistemic status: I think I probably wrung the right conclusions out of this evidence, but this isn’t the only line of evidence bearing on the broader gun control issue and all I can say is what it’s...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Guns and States 2: Son of a Gun
Thanks for your many excellent comments on Guns and States. I’ve made it through most of the comments thread and learned a lot. Here are some (hopefully) final thoughts on the matter: 1. In yesterday’s...
View ArticleSlow But Steady
I saw this on Giving What We Can and was so delighted I wanted to repost it here. Source is The effect of malaria control on plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015 in Nature: GWWC...
View ArticleSchizophrenia: No Smoking Gun
[Note: despite how some people are spinning this, tobacco is still really really bad and you should not smoke it] I. Schizophrenics smoke. A lot. Depending on the study, about 60-80% of schizophrenics...
View ArticleLinks 1/16: Link A Thief In The Night
Ancient Greek naval combat sometimes involved hurling snakes onto your enemies’ ships to cause panic and confusion. Sounds ilke a pretty good plan! The Samuel L. Jackson Award For Excellence In...
View ArticleLies, Damned Lies, And The Media (Part 6 of ∞)
[content warning: discussion of violent crime, including sexual assault] I plan to write an article on misuse of statistics by online news organizations, but looking back through my archives most of...
View ArticleClik here to view.
OT40: Martin Luthread King
This is the bi-weekly open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. Also: 1. Comments of the week are some rocket scientists discussing the significance of the latest...
View ArticleSide Effects May Include Anything
A couple of days ago a patient said he’d become depressed after starting Xolair, a new asthma drug I know nothing about. On the one hand, lots of things that mess with the immune system can cause...
View ArticlePredictions For 2016
At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. So here are a hundred more for 2016. Most of them are objectively decideable, but a few are subjective (eg “X...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Links 1/16: Shaolink
The McCullough Effect is an optical illusion where after you stare at one picture, another picture looks like it has some different colors. But unlike normal retinal-satiety optical illusions which...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Staying Classy
Siderea writes an essay on class in America. You should read it. In case you don’t, here’s the summary: 1. People tend to confuse social class with economic class, eg how much money you make. But...
View ArticleClik here to view.
OT41: Having Your Mind Involuntarily Thread
This is the bi-weekly open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. Also: 1. In the spirit of discussing class differences, here are the 36 best quotes from Davos 2016. 2....
View ArticleClik here to view.
Book Review: Superforecasting
Lots of people recommended Philip Tetlock’s Superforecasting as relevant to my interests. In retrospect, this should have been a warning sign; if I had been one of the titular superforecasters I might...
View ArticleList Of Passages I Highlighted In My Copy Of “Superforecasting”
In year 1, [the Good Judgment Project] beat the official control group by 60%. In year 2, we beat the control group by 78%. GJP also beat its university-affiliated competitors, including the Uniersity...
View ArticleClik here to view.
OT42: Thread Anniversary
This is the third anniversary of this blog. I want to take this opportunity to thank people who I otherwise haven’t gotten around to thanking: 1. Website/app design company Trike Apps, especially Matt...
View ArticleTestimonials for SSC
[Content note: various slurs and insults] I. Last post I thanked some of the people who have contributed to this blog. But I forgot some of the most important contributors: the many readers whose give...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Before You Get Too Excited About That GitHub Study…
Another day, another study purporting to find that Tech Is Sexist. Since it’s showing up here, you probably already guessed how this is going to end. Most of this analysis is not original to me –...
View Article
